Italy VS Portugal Match Prediction
2018-11-17
19:45:00
Italy
VS
Portugal
Our Prediction Tip
Portugal will win this match.
2018-11-1719:45:00 Portugal will win this match.
Portugal have only won six of their previous 26 matches against Italy, with the Italians winning 18, but the last two matches have both gone Portugal’s way. Having lost every single game between the two nations between 1980 and 2008, Portugal hit back to win a friendly in June 2015 as Eder scored the only goal of the game. In September, in the UEFA Nations League, they then won again by the same 1-0 scoreline – Andre Silva the goalscorer this time.
%HEAD-TO-HEAD-STATS-BANNER%
Portugal have started the UEFA Nations League well, putting a below-par World Cup campaign behind them to win two from two in the new competition.
Even without Cristiano Ronaldo, they boast plenty of attacking strength – Andre Silva is back in the goals, while Bernardo Silva is in supreme form for club and country.
Italy, on the other hand, won last time out – courtesy of a stoppage-time winner – but continue to look unimpressive, having failed to get out of their post-World Cup rut.
Lorenzo Insigne has been in good goalscoring form for Napoli and it would be a boost if he could translate that onto the international stage, but Portugal have strength in depth at the back too with the likes of Ruben Dias replacing the old guard.
Portugal won 1-0 the last time these two teams met, and have ended their long hoodoo in this fixture now, but the one thing they will have to be wary of is Italy’s home advantage.
There is no question Italy have a lot to prove on home soil, but whether they have the quality to beat the European champions is another matter.
Perhaps in September the Portuguese looked there for the taking, on the back of their World Cup disappointment, but that no longer seems to be the case – they are back in form, and can beat Italy to seal top spot in the group with a game to spare.
Italy are favourites thanks to being at home, but that seriously overlooks their poor form and Portugal’s impressive performances of late. Italy are a best price of 5/4 to win, but Portugal are worth backing at a best price of 13/5 with Bet365 and Betfair.
Portugal did conceded to both Poland and Scotland last month – despite keeping Italy out when they last met – and, missing the experience of Pepe, both teams to score has been set at 21/20 with 10Bet.
A Portugal win and BTTS is 7/1 with Betfair, while over 2.5 goals will return 11/8 with Betfair and Bet365.
Andre Silva scored the winner when these teams last met and the Portugal striker is 13/5 with 888sport to score at any time.
Italy might be favourites with the bookmakers, but there form makes it difficult to back them. Portugal can get the result they want from this one.
Federico Bernardeschi has withdrawn from the squad through injury, while Roberto Mancini has made several changes to the squad as he continues to look for his best XI. Giorgio Chiellini will win his 100th cap, starting as captain, but the squad also features several less-experienced players, including Brescia’s 18-year-old Sandro Tonali.
Lorenzo Insigne – The Napoli forward has been in the goals this season, with ten so far, including three in the Champions League.
Leonardo Bonucci – Alongside his fellow Juventus centre-back, the experienced defender will be key in Italy’s bid to nullify the Portuguese attacking threat.
Giorgio Chiellini – Set to win his 100th cap, as captain, and will want to mark the occasion with a clean sheet – having helped Juventus keep plenty this season.
Italy ended a five-match winning streak when they beat Poland in Chorzow last time out – Cristiano Biraghi scoring a stoppage-time winner. They had otherwise drawn three and lost two of their previous five games, including the 1-1 draw with Ukraine in which Federico Bernardeschi scored. In September, they drew 1-1 with Poland before the 1-0 defeat to Portugal in the UEFA Nations League.
There is no place in the Portugal squad for Wolves’ Helder Costa despite his goalscoring debut last month. Despite press suggestions he was set to return to the national fold, Cristiano Ronaldo is again not included – having not played for Portugal since the World Cup. Pepe is suspended for the game against Italy.
Bernardo Silva – His fine start to the season with Manchester City continued with two assists in their defeat of rivals Man United last weekend.
Andre Silva – Back in the goals and scored the winner the last time these two teams met.
Ruben Dias – With Pepe suspended, the Benfica man will need to step up to lead the defence having started both UEFA Nations League matches so far.
Portugal have bounced back well from a disappointing World Cup last-16 exit, with a 1-1 draw with Croatia followed by three consecutive wins since the summer. Andre Silva scored the winner against Italy in September while, last month, Silva and namesake Bernardo scored either side of an own goal in a 3-2 win in Poland. Portugal followed that up by beating Scotland 3-1 in a friendly, with Helder Costa, Eder and Bruma scoring.
Watch Live Streaming