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Porto vs Liverpool Prediction & Betting Tips

Liverpool travel to Porto in the first leg of their Champions League last-16 tie, at a ground in which the hosts have lost just twice since the start of last season.

POR W W W D L Porto
Liverpool LIV W D W L L

Match Information

 Estadio do Dragao, Porto, Portugal Estadio do Dragao, Porto, Portugal

  • Key Stat

    Key Stat: Porto are unbeaten in their last 15 home games, since a 3-1 defeat to Besiktas in the group stages of this year's Champions League. That was only their second home defeat - the other was against Juventus - since the since start of last season.

  • Expert Verdict

    Expert Verdict: Liverpool have been in stunning goalscoring form in the Champions League so far this season, scoring 29 goals in eight games so far - including hitting both Maribor and Spartak Moscow for seven each. They are also unbeaten in this year's competition, and will be hopeful of their chances of getting at least a draw in Porto - despite the hosts' impressive home record - to set themselves up well for the second leg.


Our prediction


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Porto Team News, Updates, and Facts Porto


Team News

Top scorer Vincent Aboubakar missed Sunday's win against Chaves and is a big doubt for Wednesday's game - a big blow to Porto ahead of the visit of Liverpool. He joins Andre Andre, Ivan Marcano and Danilo Pereira on the sidelines injured, while Felipe - who was sent off in Porto's final group game against Monaco - is suspended. Tiquinho replaced Aboubakar up front in Sunday's game - just his third league start of the season - and scored twice, however. Yacine Brahimi and Ricardo Pereira were both rested for that match, but are likely to return on Wednesday.

Key Players

In Aboubakar's likely absence, Porto will turn to Moussa Marega for goals - he has 17 for the season so far, and six assists. Their strongest side is undoubtedly their left flank, meanwhile - Alex Telles has weighed in with 16 assists from left-back, and left-winger Yacine Brahimi has eight goals and nine assists.

Team Form

After losing on penalties to Sporting in the League Cup semi-final, Porto are unbeaten in their four games since. They drew away to Moreirense but have since beating Braga 3-1, won 1-0 at home to Sporting the Taca de Portugal and, last weekend, thrashed Chaves 4-0 - Tiquinho grabbing two goals.

Porto Predicted Starting Line-up

Expected Line-up: 4-2-3-1

Porto likely XI

  • Goalkeeper:Sa

  • Defenders:R.Pereira, Reyes, Osorio, Telles

  • Defensive Midfielders:Herrera, Oliveria

  • Attacking Midfielders:Corona, Marega, Brahimi

  • Forwards:Tiquinho

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Liverpool Team News, Updates, and Facts Liverpool


Team News

Loris Karius is expected to continue in goal for the trip to Portugal, while Virgil van Dijk will make his Champions League debut for Liverpool in defence. Joel Matip was preferred to Dejan Lovren alongside Van Dijk at the weekend, and after a comfortable clean sheet could well continue. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain replaced James Milner for that game, but both could feature with Emre Can suspended for the trip to Portugal. Jordan Henderson and Georginio Wijnaldum are also competing for places, however, with only three spots for the four midfielders. Alberto Moreno started all six Champions League group games, but it is likely to be Andrew Robertson who continues at left-back after forcing his way into the starting XI in the league.

Key Players

Mohamed Salah is edging ever closer to 30 goals for the season - he is now just one away after netting his sixth goal in six games against Southampton last weekend. Roberto Firmino scored the other, from Salah's assist, to move to 20 for the season while Jurgen Klopp was also keen to highlight Sadio Mane's contribution - the winger has scored nine and assisted seven this season.

Team Form

Despite a little blip in form since beating the league leaders last month, Liverpool actually have the joint-best Premier League form in the last ten matches with Manchester City. Since a shock 3-2 defeat to West Brom in the FA Cup, they have beaten Huddersfield 3-0, drawn 2-2 with Tottenham Hotspur and, last weekend, beat Southampton 2-0 thanks to Mo Salah and Roberto Firmino.

Liverpool Predicted Starting Line-up

Expected Line-up: 4-3-3

Liverpool likely XI

  • Goalkeeper:Karius

  • Defenders:Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Van Dijk, Robertson

  • Midfielders:Henderson, Milner, Wijnaldum

  • Forwards:Salah, Firmino, Mane

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Porto vs Liverpool Head-to-Head Stats

This will be the third season Porto and Liverpool have met in European competition. Both previous matches in Porto - in the 2001 UEFA Cup and 2007 Champions League - have been drawn, but Liverpool have won both their home games. In 2001, on their way to winning the trophy, they won 2-0, while in 2007 they won 4-1.

Porto vs Liverpool Betting Tips

Porto will look at their impressive home record and fancy their chances of at least putting themselves in a good position for the second leg, but the games they have lost - however rare - have been in the Champions League.

And Liverpool - with one of the most potent strikeforces in Europe this year - will be confident of bagging an important away win in Portugal.

Jurgen Klopp's side have returned to form, just as Porto have, and the most telling the factor will be whether the Reds' defence can contain Porto’s front men.

Vincent Aboubakar's absence will be telling in that battle - Porto's top scorer is one of a number of absentees for the home side.

As a result, though there will likely be goals, the Portuguese league leaders start as slight underdogs despite their home advantage.

Both teams will fancy their chances of scoring, but Liverpool - with Mo Salah and Roberto Firmino in particularly deadly form - can bag an important away win.

Porto vs Liverpool Recommended bets with odds

Liverpool are 11/8 favourites with Bet365 to beat Porto on Wednesday, and that improves to 3/1 if you back them to win and BTTS.

Both teams to score, on its own, is just 4/6 with Betfair, which reflects Liverpool's free-scoring attack and shaky defence.

Likewise, Betfair are offering the best price of 4/5 on over 2.5 goals being scored in Wednesday's match.

In-form Mo Salah needs just one more goal to reach 30 for the season, and he is 6/4 with Betfair to score at any time.

In Vincent Aboubakar's absence, Tiquinho scored twice for Porto at the weekend, and he is 21/10 with Betfair to score against Liverpool too.

Porto vs Liverpool Prediction

Porto is undoubtedly a difficult place to come, but Liverpool can get a result which puts them in pole position to reach the quarter-finals.

Correct Score Prediction: Porto 1-2 Liverpool


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