Sweden VS Finland Match Prediction

There have been 85 previous meetings between Sweden and Finland, of which Sweden have won 65. The most recent of Finland’s nine wins was in February 2001, at the Nordic Championships, with Sweden winning four and drawing one since then. They have not met since the Euro 2012 qualifiers, however – Zlatan Ibrahimovic scoring a hat-trick in a 5-0 Sweden win in their home game. Joona Toivio scored for Finland in the reverse fixture, but it was too late to spark a comeback in a 2-1 Swedish win.

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SWE vs FIN Betting Tips

These fixtures are difficult to judge, given the unusual make-up of both sides. The unofficial friendlies are ultimately a chance for Sweden to blood players yet to find a spot in the senior side, however, whereas Finland are packed with experience.

What Finland lack though is a goalscorer and, against a Swedish defence that has proved as difficult to break down at this level as the full senior side has, that could be a problem.

For all Finland’s experience on the international stage, Sweden have a strong defence – including the core of AIK’s Allsvenskan-winning side, who conceded just 16 times in 30 games.

Add in goalscorers like Alexandre Jeremejeff and Muamer Tankovic – the Allsvenskan Newcomer of the Year for 2018 – and there is quality at both ends of the pitch.

Finland’s form has improved of late, particularly with their UEFA Nations League success, but that relied a lot on Teemu Pukki’s goals and the Norwich striker is not involved in these fixtures.

Tim Sparv, Glen Kamara and Joona Toivio are among those selected who played a key part in those games but, again, goals will be the issue against this Swedish defence.

If Sweden can keep Finland out, they have the attacking quality at the other end to nick a win in what have tended (with a couple of notable exceptions) to be low-scoring games in recent years.

Finland vs Sweden Recommended bets with odds

Sweden are favourites to beat Finland with their scratch squad, with 888sport offering a best price of 17/20 on a Swedish win.

These games tend to be low scoring ones, and under 2.5 goals will return 13/20 with Bet365 and Betfair.

Sweden’s defence will be key, and you can bet against both teams to score at 3/4 with Betfair, while a Sweden win to nil will return 13/8 with Bet365 and Betway.

A Sweden clean sheet, on its own, is worth backing at a best price of 11/10 with Betfair and Betway too, given the lack of obvious goalscoring prowess in the Finnish ranks.

Sweden vs Finland Prediction

Sweden’s scratch squad has enough quality at the back and up front – based on their domestic form at least – to grab a narrow win against an experienced Finland side.

Correct Score Prediction: Sweden 1-0 Finland

Sweden Team News

Sweden boss Janne Andersson is treating this fixture as a chance to watch the fringe players in action, so the more experienced domestic-based players – captain Andreas Granqvist, for example, are not included. Malmö FF have not released any players following a packed early-season calendar due to European commitments – Oscar Lewicki is among those therefore not available. Brighton agreed to release Viktor Gyokeres for these fixtures – the only non-Scandinavian player involved. Borussia Dortmund’s Alexander Isak was also selected but has since withdrawn. Up to 12 players could make their debuts.

Sweden Key Players

Kalle Holmberg – Scored in the winter friendlies last January and scored nine goals for Norrkoping in 2018 too.
Jacob Rinne – Danish-based keeper has helped Aalborg into the top six with six games of the Superliga season remaining.
Muamer Tankovic – The 2018 Allsvenskan Newcomer of the Year scored seven goals in 32 games last season.

Sweden Team Form

Looking only at the unofficial winter friendly results, Sweden are unbeaten in their last three games – winning two and drawing one. Last January, Kalle Holmberg scored his first international goal in a 1-1 draw with Estonia while Gustaf Nilsson’s stoppage-time winner earned a 1-0 victory against Denmark – both games having been played in Abu Dhabi.

Sweden Predicted Starting Line up

Expected Line up: 4-4-2

Finland Team News

Under-21 striker Benji Kallman is among the players not released to play for Finland, along with their more experienced overseas-based senior stars, but Finland still boasts a strong squad. Captain Tim Sparv is included, while Rasmus Schuller is available as it is off-season in the USA too. Joona Toivio, Juhani Ojala and Rasmus Schuller are also among the experienced internationals called up.

Finland Key Players

Tim Sparv – Veteran of 65 Finnish caps, the Midtjylland midfielder and national captain offers experience that Sweden simply do not have to count on in Doha.
Joona Toivio – Experienced Swedish-based defender is the other player in the squad with more than  50 caps, while he scored in the fixture against Jordan at this time last year.
Jesse Joronen – Has helped Copenhagen to the top of the Danish Superliga and earned an international recall to the full squad in goal too.

Finland Team Form

After beating Morocco 1-0 and losing 2-0 to Slovenia in these fixtures in 2017, Finland only played one game in Abu Dhabi last year as the Scandinavian national teams decamped to the UAE. On that occasion, Joona Toivio and Akseli Pelvas scored in a 2-1 win against Jordan.

Finland Predicted Starting Line up

Expected Line up: 4-4-2

While made up of players based in the Scandinavian leagues only - i.e, those on their winter break - Sweden are as tight at the back in these games as they have been at senior level. Finland could struggle to break them down and, if they do, the Swedes can claim victory.

Sweden are unbeaten in their last three unofficial winter friendlies - they drew with Estonia and beat Denmark in these games last year.