Real Madrid VS Atletico Madrid Match Prediction
- 2018-08-15
- 19:00:00
Real Madrid will win this match.
Real Madrid have won the Madrid derby nearly twice as often as Atletico, recording 109 wins in 219 matches compared to 55 Atletico victories. Both matches last season ended in draws, however – going goalless at the Wanda Metropolitano before Antoine Griezmann cancelled out Cristiano Ronaldo’s strike in a 1-1 at the Bernabeu.
Atletico’s last win against Real came in the Champions League semi-finals in 2016/17, but their 2-1 home win was not enough to progress to the final, having lost 3-0 away from home. They have never previously met in the UEFA Super Cup, however. Here are the results of their last five matches:
Apr 08, 2018: Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid
Nov 18, 2017: Atletico Madrid 0-0 Real Madrid
May 10, 2017: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
May 02, 2017: Real Madrid 3-0 Atletico Madrid
Apr 08, 2017: Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid
%HEAD-TO-HEAD-STATS-BANNER%Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid are both back to full strength after the World Cup, but it is Real Madrid who have more momentum going into the new season thanks to success in pre-season.
Gareth Bale, Karim Benzema and Marco Asensio have all had full pre-seasons and are all in the goals, whereas Atletico only welcomed back Antoine Griezmann and Diego Costa in their most recent friendly.
If it comes down to match sharpness, therefore, Real have the upper hand – and it might well do given three of the last five games between these two have been drawn.
The Madrid Derby is a baptism of fire for Julen Lopetegui but it is also a chance to start his reign with a trophy – and Real have won both of the last two UEFA Super Cups on the back of their Champions League successes.
Atletico should not be written off – anything can happen in a final, and anything can happen in a derby game – but it is difficult to look beyond Real Madrid continuing their trophy-laden recent European record.
Real Madrid are narrow favourites to beat Atletico Madrid, with Bet365 offering 6/4 on the European champions and 2/1 on the Europa League winners. Real are 3/4 to lift the trophy, meanwhile, however they achieve that.
Both teams to score has been set at 4/5 in what should be a close game, but you can get a generous 23/20 on there being over 2.5 goals in the game with 888sport – considering Gareth Bale and Karim Benzema are in good form, that is a tempting price. A Real win and BTTS is 9/2 with Bet365.
On the topic of Bale and Benzema, the Welshman is 11/5 to score at any time with 888sport, while Benzema can be backed at 29/10.
Real Madrid have been in good form in pre-season, and Gareth Bale and Karim Benzema look fit and sharp. If Atletico can not contain those two, and Marco Asensio, then the European champions can make it three consecutive UEFA Super Cup triumphs.
All of Real Madrid’s World Cup players returned to action in their most recent friendly against Milan, with Raphael Varane in the starting line-up and Luka Modric coming on as a second-half substitute. With Modric not fully match fit, it is likely to be the same starting XI that face Atletico, however, with one exception – new signing Thiabaut Courtois is set to make his debut in goal after signing from Chelsea, against the team he spent several season on loan at.
Gareth Bale – Scored in each of Real Madrid’s last three friendlies to ensure he will start against Atletico as he bids to step up in place of the departed Cristiano Ronaldo.
Karim Benzema – French striker grabbed his second goal of pre-season to open the scoring against Milan, to ensure he has found goalscoring touch ahead of the new season.
Marco Asensio – Looks to have earned a starting place after three goals in pre-season, on the left of the attacking trio behind Benzema.
Real Madrid’s only pre-season defeat came in their first game – losing 2-1 to an out-of-form Manchester United despite Karim Benzema’s goal. They bounced back well, however, as they returned to match fitness. Juventus were swept aside 3-1 thanks to Gareth Bale’s superb strike and a second-half double from Marco Asensio, before both men scored again in a 2-1 defeat of Roma. Last time out, against Milan, Benzema, Bale and Borja Mayoral scored Real’s goals in a 3-1 win – despite former striker Gonzalo Higuain having scored in reply.
Diego Costa, Lucas Hernandez and Antoine Griezmann all returned to action against Inter in Atletico’s most recent friendly, with the former playing an hour and the latter two getting half an hour. Griezmann and Hernandez could now start in the Super Cup for what would be their first start since the World Cup final. Thomas Lemar was already back in action having only been on the fringes of the French squad, as were the rest of Atletico’s World Cup contingent – they should be at full strength to face Real.
Antoine Griezmann – One of the stars of France’s World Cup win, having also been the star of Atletico’s Europa League triumph last season.
Diego Costa – Scored seven times on his return to Atletico last season and will hope to now hit his previously prolific heights in his first full-season back in Madrid.
Thomas Lemar – French winger is Atletico’s biggest summer signing so far, having beaten Premier League clubs to the ex-Monaco man’s signature.
Atletico have had a mixed bag of a pre-season, failing to win any of their three International Champions Cup matches and winning just one of five friendlies in all. An under-strength squad travelled to Singapore to face Arsenal and PSG, drawing with the former and winning on penalties before losing 3-2 to the latter. They then drew with Stuttgart, with Joaquin Munoz scoring the equaliser, and beat Cagliari thanks to Borja Garces’ goal. They lost their most recent friendly, however – another in the International Champions Cup – then they fell to a 1-0 defeat to Inter.