Leeds United VS Derby County Match Prediction
2019-05-15
18:45:00
Leeds United
VS
Derby County
Our Prediction Tip
Leeds United will win this match.
2019-05-1518:45:00 Leeds United will win this match.
Kemar Roofe has scored four goals against Derby County, leading Leeds to victory in all three matches they have played against each other. Roofe scored in each half of Leeds’ 4-1 win at Pride Park in August – Mateusz Klich opened the scoring and Egzijan Alioski completed a big win, despite Tom Lawrence having equalised early on. In the reverse fixture, Roofe opened the scoring and Jack Harrison added a second in a 2-0 win overshadowed by the ‘spygate’ affair. And Roofe ensured Leeds took a first-leg lead in this tie with the only goal at Pride Park on Saturday too.
Here are the results of their last five matches:
May 11, 2019: Derby County 0-1 Leeds
Jan 11, 2019: Leeds United 2-0 Derby County
Aug 11, 2018: Derby County 1-4 Leeds United
Feb 21, 2018: Derby County 2-2 Leeds United
Oct 31, 2017: Leeds United 1-2 Derby County
Leeds have one foot in the play-off final after their bad-tempered win at Pride Park, which saw Derby have a penalty over-turned by the linesman and tempers fray towards the end.
Kemar Roofe’s goal ultimately made the difference, and the Rams will be glad to have seen the back of him with the striker injured for the second leg – he has scored in all three Leeds wins against Derby this season.
With just one goal in it, the tie is still very much alive, but Leeds have been in dominant form against Derby this season and the Rams’ away form does not inspire confidence.
Frank Lampard’s side have won just once in their last ten away games and with Martyn Waghorn a doubt due to injury they are lacking one of the main attacking outlets too.
Leeds are missing Roofe, of course, but Patrick Bamford is back from his two-game ban and can slot in against the team he previously played for on loan from Chelsea.
There are goals in this Derby team – Harry Wilson has 17 for the season and Tom Lawrence has scored and assisted 12 in total.
But their poor away record and the fact they did not even manage a shot on target in the first leg shows that Leeds can keep them out.
In truth, having finished third in the table and been in contention for automatic promotion for much of the year, there is no surprise Leeds are in control of this tie.
They should not now let it go, having recorded three wins against Derby already this season. A fourth would confirm their place at Wembley.
Leeds United are odds-on favourites to beat Derby County in this second leg and seal a place in the play-off final, at 8/11 with Bet365 and Ladbrokes.
Derby struggled to create anything of note in the first leg, and a Leeds win to nil is 21/10 with Ladbrokes.
You can also bet against both teams to score at 21/20 with 888Sport and Ladbrokes, while under 2.5 goals will return evens with Bet365, Ladbrokes, Betfair and 888sport.
In Kemar Roofe’s absence, Patrick Bamford is 5/4 with Ladbrokes to score at any time. Mateusz Klich scored in the final two games of the season and he is 4/1 with Ladbrokes.
A 1-0 win in the first leg has put Leeds in firm control of this tie and, with Derby poor away from home, the hosts can finish the job at Elland Road with another win.
Kemar Roofe, Leeds’ goalscorer in the first leg as he netted against Derby four the fourth time this season, will miss the return fixture with a calf injury. Adam Forshaw has also suffered a knock and will miss the game at Elland Road, while Pontus Jansson is still doubtful. Patrick Bamford is back from his two-game ban for ‘successful deception of a match referee’ after his play-acting led to Anwar El Ghazi’s red card in the controversial draw with Aston Villa. Bamford could therefore replace Roofe, while Jamie Shackleton could start in place of Forshaw.
Patrick Bamford – The former Derby loanee is set to lead the line with plenty to prove after his two-match ban as he looks to add to his ten goals this season.
Pablo Hernandez – The Spanish winger has contributed 12 goals and 12 assists so far this season.
Mateusz Klich – One of his ten goals came in the win against Derby earlier in the season, while the Polish midfielder has also contributed eight assists.
Kemar Roofe’s goal in the first leg ended Leeds’ four-game winless streak and ensured they took a 1-0 lead in this tie ahead of their home leg. They had previously drawn one – the controversial 1-1 with Aston Villa – and lost three, including a last-minute defeat to relegated Ipswich on the final day of the season. Mateusz Klich scored in both of those games, with his controversial strike against Aston Villa, after Leeds had appeared set to kick the ball out, dividing opinion. Klich and Stuart Dallas both scored equalisers at Portman Road on the final day, meanwhile, only for Ipswich to snatch a late 3-2 win.
Striker Martyn Waghorn missed the first leg and is therefore a doubt for the reverse fixture as he continues to recover from an Achilles tendon injury. Duane Holmes went off on 70 minutes in the first leg, but he has been passed fit to start.
Harry Wilson – The Liverpool loanee has caught the eye this season with a string of sublime goals on his way to netting 17 for the season.
Mason Mount – Another smart loan acquisition, the Chelsea man’s form was such that he earned an England call-up earlier in the year and he has ten goals and six assists in all.
Tom Lawrence – The Welsh winger has seven goals and five assists so far this season, including the only goal Derby have managed in three meetings with Leeds.
Derby were unbeaten in six matches heading into the play-offs, having ended the league season with a 3-1 win at home to West Brom to seal their top-six place. Martyn Waghorn, Mason Bennett and Harry Wilson all scored for the Rams. They lost their unbeaten run in the first leg of this tie, however – the 1-0 defeat leaving them on the brink of missing out on the Wembley final.
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