Leeds United VS Derby County Match Prediction

  • Logo2019-01-11
  • Logo19:45:00
Leeds United
VS
Derby County

Our Prediction Tip

Draw will win this match.

Leeds beat Derby 4-1 at Pride Park earlier in the season – their 55th win in this fixture, compared to 28 draws and 37 Derby victories. Mateusz Klich opened the scoring but Tom Lawrence equalised on 12 minutes. Kemar Roofe scored in each half and Egzijan Alioski completed a big Leeds win last time out. Last season, however, they drew 2-2 at Pride Park and Derby won 2-1 at Elland Road – Sam Winnall scoring a late double in the latter.

Here are the results of their last five matches:

Aug 11, 2018: Derby County 1-4 Leeds United
Feb 21, 2018: Derby County 2-2 Leeds United
Oct 31, 2017: Leeds United 1-2 Derby County
Jan 13, 2017: Leeds United 1-0 Derby County
Oct 15, 2016: Derby County 1-0 Leeds United

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LEE vs DER Betting Tips

While Leeds remain top of the Championship, they are not in good form – three straight defeats prove that, even if the last one was in the FA Cup.

Their issue has clearly been a defensive one, where they have conceded at least two goals in each of the last five games and, even with Harry Wilson absent, Derby will be relishing the chance to get at that defence.

Liam Cooper’s early return from injury is a boost for Leeds but it is tempered by the fact they are without suspended Kalvin Phillips.

Both sides are contending with injuries too, though Tom Lawrence’s return is perfectly timed to negate the loss of Wilson for Derby.

Jack Marriott has scored plenty too, and he and Lawrence were on target in the 2-2 draw with Southampton last time out.

Frank Lampard’s side may have only won one in six, but they have only lost once in that time – drawing four times.

Another draw is not beyond the realms of possibility therefore – and recent evidence from both teams suggests you can expect goals too.

Leeds scored four at Pride Park earlier in the season but they were early days in this season and Derby have responded well.

The Rams can get a result from this game – and a point apiece would do little harm to either side’s ambitions.

Derby County vs Leeds United Recommended bets with odds

Leeds’ home advantage and the fact they top the Championship table makes them favourites for this one, at 4/5 with Ladbrokes and Betway, but Derby do not lose many. The draw is a tempting 11/4 with Bet365, Betfair, Betway and 10Bet.

Expect goals – with Leeds conceding at least two per game for the last five matches. Over 3.5 goals has been set at a best price of 37/20 with 888sport.

Both teams to score, meanwhile, is 4/6 with Bet365 and a draw and BTTS is 15/4.

Kemar Roofe has weighed in with some crucial goals for Leeds, and is 5/4 to score again at any time on Friday. For Derby, Jack Marriott is a best price of 9/4 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Betway.

Leeds United vs Derby County Prediction

Leeds’ big win earlier in the season could give them the edge but Derby have been hard to beat of late and Leeds have lost three in a row and conceded plenty in recent weeks. A high-scoring draw could be on the cards.

Correct Score Prediction: Leeds United 2-2 Derby County

Leeds United Team News

Liam Cooper could return sooner than expected having played 65 minutes for the under-23s on Monday night but Stuart Dallas missed the chance of a run-out in that game and is not expected to feature on Friday as a result. Gaetano Berardi, Izzy Brown and Patrick Bamford are out, while Barry Douglas is to be assessed after missing the game against QPR. Kalvin Phillips, meanwhile, is suspended.

Leeds United Key Players

Kemar Roofe – Scored last-minute winners in the wins against Aston Villa and Blackburn either side of Christmas.
Pablo Hernandez – Seven goals and most impressively ten assists from the wing too, in just 19 appearances so far this season.
Mateusz Klich – Five goals and six assists from central midfield prove how he has rediscovered himself under Marcelo Bielsa.

Leeds United Team Form

Leeds United won seven in a row after a crushing defeat to West Brom - leaving it late to beat both Aston Villa and Blackburn Rovers 3-2, courtesy of late Kemar Roofe goals, either side of Christmas in the latter two. Since the Blackburn game on Boxing Day, however, in which Roofe scored twice in stoppage time just moments after Rovers had gone 2-1 up, Leeds have lost three in a row. A 2-0 home loss against Hull started the bad run, before Nottingham Forest won 4-2 at the City Ground - Jack Clarke and Egzijan Alioski having put ten-man Leeds 2-1 up in the second-half. Last time out, in the FA Cup, Aapo Halme scored in a 2-1 defeat at QPR.

Leeds United Predicted Starting Line up

Expected Line up: 4-1-4-1

Derby County Team News

Top scorer Harry Wilson might miss the trip to Leeds through injury, after being taken off on New Year’s Day with a hip problem. Frank Lampard says the Liverpool loanee is being assessed day by day, after missing last weekend’s FA Cup draw with Southampton. With that in mind, Tom Lawrence’s goalscoring return to the side was perfectly timed. Scott Malone remains sidelined with a groin injury, meanwhile, and long-term absentees Craig Forsyth, Curtis Davies, Marcus Olsson and Mason Bennett are still sidelined.

Derby County Key Players

Tom Lawrence – Returned to the team for the FA Cup match against Southampton and grabbed one goal and one assist in the second-half.
Jack Marriott – Goal against Southampton was his tenth of the season, having also netted against Norwich the previous weekend too.
Mason Mount – Chelsea loanee earned an England call-up having scored six times and set up a further three so far this season.

Derby County Team Form

Derby County have won one of their last six games but they have also only lost once too. Their comeback in the FA Cup against Southampton, when Jack Marriott and Tom Lawrence secured a 2-2 home draw having been 2-0 down, made it three games without defeat. It followed the 1-1 home draw with Middlesbrough, in which Harry Wilson scored after just two minutes, and the dramatic 4-3 win at Norwich the previous weekend. Derby trailed 2-0 before Fikayo Tomori and Mason Mount pulled goals back, and were 3-2 down going into the final few minutes when Florian Jozefzoon and Jack Marriott scored to earn a stunning comeback win.

Derby County Predicted Starting Line up

Expected Line up 4-3-3

One win in five league games has seen Derby drop off the pace a little but, with Leeds losing three in a row, the Championship leaders have had their wings clipped of late too. Despite their lack of wins, Derby have made themselves hard to beat - losing just once since the start of December. Their one win came away to second-placed Norwich too - they have enough to leave Elland Road with at least a point.
Leeds have conceded at least two goals in each of their last five matches.