Italy VS Spain Match Prediction

Spain thrashed Italy 4-0 in the final of Euro 2012, a match many of the Italian players will certainly remember, especially the goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon. David Silva's header put Spain in front and Jordi Alba made it 2-0 before half-time, with Fernando Torres and Juan Mata on the scoresheet in the second half.

Since that match there have been three other meetings between the sides, none of which have seen over 2.5 goals, while Italy have not won any of them either. A 0-0 draw at the 2013 Confederations Cup saw Spain go through on penalties, while there was a 1-1 friendly between the sides just three months ago. Spain have beaten Italy 11 times, losing eight games.

Italy v Spain: Prediction

Italy v Spain has a feel of a final about it rather than a second-round game, with neither side really hitting top gear in the tournament so far. While Italy will be motivated by revenge after the final four years ago, Spain have the big-game experience to move through into the next round. Italy's solid back line will be hard to breach, but if anyone can find a way through, it is certainly Spain.

Italy v Spain: Betting Tips

Alvaro Morata is a man in form and he has three goals in his last two games and odds of 23/10 are available for him to score any time, with Spain favourites to win at a price of 11/10. Italy are the outsiders at 3/1, while the odds of around 39/20 on the draw look like good value too. 

The last three matches between the sides have all seen under 2.5 goals, which is priced at 20/57 and may also be worth considering for this game. The last competitive meeting between the teams ended in a 0-0 draw, which could well happen again here and is available at 4/1.

After resting players in the last group game against Republic of Ireland, Antonio Conte is likely to return to his strongest team for this second-round clash against the defending champions.

The all-Juventus back line kept two clean sheets in two games and will return here, with Eder likely to partner Graziano Pelle in attack. Italy could seek to pack the midfield in order to deny Spain the room they like to use when constructing their bewitching passing moves.

Italy likely XI: 

Buffon, Barzagli, Bonucci, Chiellini, Candreva, Parolo, De Rossi, Giaccherini, Florenzi, Eder, Pelle.

Vicente del Bosque is not known for too much tinkering, so his starting line-up is fairly predictable, with no major injury concerns for this match.

Alvaro Morata has found good form after a disappointing performance in the opening group game and he has scored three goals in his last two matches, while Andres Iniesta is the key man for Spain, with Italy needing to shut him down if they are to progress to the quarter-finals.

Spain likely XI: 

De Gea, Juanfran, Pique, Ramos, Alba, Iniesta, Busquets, Fabregas, Silva, Morata, Nolito.

This should be one of the best games of the tournament, but there is a risk that they are so closely-matched that they cancel each out and the match becomes a tactical battle. Spain\'s back-to-back titles means they are deservedly the favourites for this game and in Morata they have one of the hottest strikers in the tournament, which gives them the edge here.

Spain are already the joint-most successful team in European Championship history, but a fourth title would put them clear of Germany.