Italy VS Finland Match Prediction
2019-03-23
19:45:00
Italy
VS
Finland
Our Prediction Tip
Italy will win this match.
2019-03-2319:45:00 Italy will win this match.
Italy are unbeaten in 12 previous matches against Finland, of which they have won 11. They had not faced each other for 12 years before Italy’s 2-0 friendly win in June 2016, however. Antonio Candreva and Daniele de Rossi scored Italy’s goals in that match.
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Italy have looked more solid at the back since Roberto Mancini took over as manager – the former Manchester City and Inter boss having restored their proud defensive record.
Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci are at the heart of that, and after three consecutive clean sheets the attention now turns to the opposite side of the pitch.
Mancini has identified Italy’s attacking problem and sought to remedy it after just two goals in their last three matches – both of which were stoppage-time winners.
Fabio Quagliarella is perhaps the most notable inclusion and a sign of Mancini’s thinking – the striker may be 36 but he has been in prolific form in Serie A.
The only surprise is Mario Balotelli has not managed to force his way back in, but Mancini knows the enigmatic forward better than anybody and has said he wants his former player to prove his recent form is no flash in the pan.
If Italy can solve their attacking issues and, away from home, Finland certainly seem a lot more vulnerable than on home soil, they can win this one comfortably.
The Finns are another nation who do not score many goals, even when they are winning – Teemu Pukki’s form helped them to top their UEFA Nations League group and he has been integral for Norwich too, but few others have stepped up.
Two defeats in their last two competitive away matches highlights Finland’s reasons for concern ahead of this match.
Italy need to win to keep their rebuilding going – a win to nil, with a couple of goals against an otherwise solid Finland defence would represent a good return.
Italy are unsurprisingly favourites for a match they have never lost in, with Bet365 offering 3/10 on a home win.
That improves to 8/11 with Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Betfair, Betway and Bet365 if you back them to win to nil – having not conceded in any of their last three games.
Italy have hardly been prolific themselves, however, and under 2.5 goals will return 5/7 with 10Bet. You can also back against both teams to score at a best price of 3/7 with 10Bet.
On his return to the national set-up, in-form Fabio Quagliarella is 11/10 with Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power and 10Bet to score at any time.
Italy have improved defensively recently, but Finland have been tough to break down too (just as Italy have found goals hard to come by). A low-scoring home win would represent a good start to Italy’s Euro 2020 qualifying campaign.
Roberto Mancini has resisted the urge to recall Mario Balotelli to the Italy squad despite his prolific form for Marseille. Andrea Belotti also misses out, but veteran striker Fabio Quagliarella could make his first appearance in eight years, aged 36, after a great goalscoring season with Sampdoria. At the other end of the age scale, Moise Kean retains his place in the squad and there are five players bidding for a first cap – Alessio Cragno, Armando Izzo, Gianluca Mancini, Nicolo Zaniolo and Leonardo Pavoletti.
Giorgio Chiellini – One half of the Juventus/Italy defensive duo with Leo Bonucci – their experience has been key to Italy’s improved defensive form.
Matteo Politano – Scored a stoppage-time winner against the USA last time out and will hope that is enough o earn him another crack in a squad packed with strikers.
Fabio Quagliarella – The 36-year-old Sampdoria striker could not be ignored after banging in 20 goals for his club this season.
Italy are unbeaten in their last four matches and have kept clean sheets in the last three. Federico Bernardeschi scored in a 1-1 home draw with Ukraine, before Cristiano Biraghi’s stoppage-time winner was the only goal against Poland in Gdansk. A goalless draw with Portugal followed, before another stoppage-time winner – this time from Matteo Politano – in a friendly win against USA.
Jere Uronen has withdrawn from the squad through injury with Mikko Sumusalo called up in his place. Markus Halsti and Jasse Tuominen are among the players missing from the most recent full international squad.
Teemu Pukki – The Norwich striker has been in prolific at club level as well as scoring three goals in the UEFA Nations League.
Joona Toivio – The most experienced defender in the squad in terms of international caps – if they can not break the Italian rearguard, their own must be in top form to get anything from this game.
Kasper Hamalainen – The Legia Warsaw midfielder has a decent international goalscoring record with nine goals from his 52 caps.
After four wins without conceding a goal to kick off their UEFA Nations League campaign, Finland finished top despite losing both matches in November – 1-0 away to Greece and 2-0 in Hungary. Since then, they have played Sweden and Estonia in Doha with squads drawn from Scandinavian football. Finland beat the former 1-0, but suffered a 2-1 defeat away to the latter.
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