France VS Croatia Match Prediction
2018-07-15
15:00:00
France
VS
Croatia
Our Prediction Tip
France will win this match.
2018-07-1515:00:00 France will win this match.
France have never lost to Croatia, having faced them five times since the break-up of Yugoslavia. Their first ever meeting was in the semi-finals of the 1998 World Cup, when France won 2-1 despite having Laurent Blanc controversially sent off. France then won friendlies in 1999, winning 3-0, and 2000 – when they triumphed 2-0.
At Euro 2004, Croatia finally avoided defeat against France – drawing 2-2 – while the two teams last met in a friendly in Paris in 2011. The 0-0 draw featured players including Hugo Lloris, Blaise Matuidi, Dejan Lovren, Luka Modric and Ivan Perisic from the likely line-ups for Sunday’s final.
%HEAD-TO-HEAD-STATS-BANNER%
France are unbeaten in their last ten matches, of which they have won eight
France have never lost to Croatia (won three, drawn two) in five previous matches
Antoine Griezmann has been directly involved in 20 goals in his last 20 France appearances – 12 scored, eight assisted.
Ivan Perisic has now been involved in ten Croatian goals at major tournaments (six goals, four assists) – no other Croatian has been directly involved in more
While few people would have predicted this World Cup final, there is little doubt that two of the best teams at Russia 2018 will be meeting in Moscow’s Luzhniki Stadium on Sunday.
For Croatia it is unchartered territory, having last reached the semi-finals on their World Cup debut in 1998 and having never gone further.
France, meanwhile, have played in two World Cup finals (won in 1998, lost in 2006) and were in a major tournament final as recently as two years ago, when they lost on home soil to Portugal after extra time at Euro 2016.
France are favourites for this one thanks to their experience, but also the manner in which they have reached the final – improving as they went on and overcoming the tougher of the two routes to Moscow having had to beat Argentina, Uruguay and Belgium to get this far.
Croatia, on the other hand, have been taken to extra time in all three knock-out matches but looked excellent in the group stages – not least in their 3-0 win against Argentina.
The key will be the individual battles that take place – Paul Pogba and N’golo Kante against Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic being the most pertinent. Modric and Rakitic have won their midfield battles so far, but France have got this far by cutting off the supply to the big-name strikers they have faced.
If they can add Mario Mandzukic to a list that already includes Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Romelu Lukaku in this tournament, they should lift the trophy in Moscow.
At the other end, their threat from set pieces has been clear too – and something Denmark and Russia were able to exploit against Croatia too. Raphael Varane and Samuel Umtiti have scored in France’s last two games, and if Antoine Griezmann’s set-piece deliveries impress again the two centre-backs could add to their tally.
Finally, the star turn of this year’s tournament – teenage Frenchman Kylian Mbappe. His skills, his passing and his goals have marked him as a star of this tournament – if he gets the better of a not fully fit Croatian defence, France will be world champions for the second time.
The last three World Cup finals have gone to extra time
France to win in extra-time – 17/2 with Bet365
Only one team has scored more than two goals in the final since 1986 (France in 1998)
Winning margin = one goal – 5/4 with Betway
Only one of the last seven World Cup finals has seen both teams score
Both teams to score = no at 8/13 with Betfair
France’s 3-0 win against Brazil in 1998 is the only final since 1986 in which there have been over 2.5 goals
Total goals = under 2.5 at 1/2 with Betfair
France’s big-game experience and performances in the knock-out rounds makes them favourite to win the World Cup final at 19/20 with Bet365, Betfair, Betway and 10Bet. Croatia are 15/4 to win with Bet365, Betfair and Betway.
France are a best price of 5/11 with 888sport to lift the trophy, meanwhile, which offers some fall back if the game goes to penalties.
France have won their last two matches to nil and, with only one of the last seven World Cup finals seeing both teams to score it would be risky to back BTTS. Betting against both teams to score is a best price of 8/13 with Betfair.
A France clean sheet will return evens with Ladbrokes and Betfair, while France to win to nil is 17/10 with Ladbrokes, Betway.
For the same reason, under 2.5 goals – at a best price of 1/2 with Betfair – would follow the recent trend of low-scoring World Cup finals.
Antoine Griezmann – 19/10 (Betway): Not only is Griezmann France’s joint top-scorer with three goals so far, the fact he takes set pieces makes him a more likely candidate to score. He has scored 12 times in his last 20 France appearances.
Kylian Mbappe – 12/5 (Paddy Power): France’s star man in this tournament, the teenage sensation stepped up in the win against Argentina and has three goals in the tournament so far.
Raphael Varane/Samuel Umtiti – 16/1 (Bet365): France’s set-piece threat is obvious, and both Raphael Varane and Samuel Umtiti have scored in the knock-out stages. Croatia have conceded goals from set pieces too, so the two centre-backs are worth backing.
Mario Mandzukic – 9/2 (Betfair): It’s not all about the French, of course, and Mario Mandzukic has come up with Croatia goals in two of the three knock-out matches. He has scored on the big stage before too – scoring a superb overhead kick in the 2017 Champions League final.
Ivan Perisic – 13/2 (888sport): His goal against England was his second of the 2018 World Cup and sixth for Croatia at a major tournament.
1) France to win at 19/20 with 10 Bet
2) Both teams to score = "NO" at 8/13 with Betfair
3) Total goals = under 2.5 at 1/2 with Betfair
4) France to win to nil at 17/10 with Ladbrokes
5) Antoine Griezmann to score at any time at 19/10 with Betway
France are favourites to beat Croatia and they have the big-game experience and the form to do just that. Croatia have impressed in Russia, but France have the quality to combat Croatia’s biggest threats and win a second World Cup title.
France will be at full strength for the World Cup final and are likely to be unchanged for the World Cup final after Blaise Matuidi came back from suspension to replace Corentin Tolisso in the semi-final win against Belgium. Olivier Giroud’s lack of goals at this tournament has not concerned Didier Deschamps, who is likely to keep faith in the Chelsea striker rather than switch formation to accommodate Ousmane Dembele or Thomas Lemar.
Antoine Griezmann (forward) – Has been directly involved in 20 goals (12 scored, eight assisted) in his last 20 France appearances.
Kylian Mbappe (forward) – Teenage sensation has emerged as a favourite to win the Golden Ball, scoring three goals so far including two in the win against Argentina.
Paul Pogba (midfielder) – Alongside N’golo Kante, Pogba has run the show in the middle of midfield, cutting off service to the likes of Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and now Romelu Lukaku in the knock-out matches.
France 2-1 Australia (Griezmann (p), own goal)
France 1-0 Peru (Mbappe)
France 0-0 Denmark
France 4-3 Argentina (Griezmann (p), Pavard, Mbappe (2))
France 2-0 Uruguay (Varane, Griezmann)
France 1-0 Belgium (Umtiti)
France football team won their first two group games without showing their best form, as Antoine Griezmann’s late penalty and a deflected Paul Pogba strike saw off Australia before Kylian Mbappe scored the only goal of the game in the defeat of Peru. After resting players for their final group game, a goalless draw with Denmark secured top spot.
In the knock-out stages, however, France have stepped things up – starting with their thrilling win against Argentina. Griezmann scored an early penalty and then hit from the bar from a free-kick, only for France to find themselves 2-1 down early in the second-half. Benjamin Pavard levelled with a brilliant strike before Mbappe stole the headlines with two goals and France held on to win despite Sergio Aguero pulling one back late on.
Griezmann was the star in the quarter-final, meanwhile, with a clever, inch-perfect cross for Raphael Varane’s opener before a goalkeeping error allowed his speculative second-half strike to drop in. In between, Hugo Lloris made a brilliant save to keep France in front at the interval. And France booked their place in the final with another set-piece goal against Belgium in the semi-final – Samuel Umtiti heading in the only goal of the game.
France are now unbeaten in their last ten matches, of which they have won eight – stretching back to a 3-2 friendly defeat to Colombia in March. They beat Russia 3-1 in their following game, and then geared up for the World Cup with wins against Republic of Ireland (2-0) and Italy (3-1) before Kylian Mbappe’s late equaliser ensured draw with the USA in their final warm-up game. In Russia, they have won five of their six matches to reach the final – without the need for extra time in any of their knock-out matches.
Hugo Lloris
World Cup 2018 appearances: 5
World Cup 2018 goals conceded: 4
World Cup 2018 clean sheets: 3
Benjamin Pavard
Appearances: 5
Goals: 1
Raphael Varane
Appearances: 6
Goals: 1
Samuel Umtiti
Appearances: 5
Goals: 1
Lucas Hernandez
Appearances: 6
Goals: 0
Paul Pogba
Appearances: 5
Goals: 0
N’golo Kante
Appearances: 6
Goals: 0
Kylian Mbappe
Appearances: 5 (+1 as sub)
Goals: 3
Antoine Griezmann
Appearances: 6
Goals: 3
Blaise Matuidi
Appearances: 3 (+1 as sub)
Goals: 0
Olivier Giroud
Appearances: 5 (+1 as sub)
Goals: 0
Sime Vrsaljko and Danijel Subasic passed fitness tests to play against England, while Dejan Lovren also played despite missing training earlier in the week. With their defensive injury concerns allayed, the only doubt now is Mario Mandzukic – the striker was already struggling with an injury before he scored the winner against England and hobbled off shortly afterwards. As long as Mandzukic is fit, however, Croatia are likely to be unchanged – which would mean Marcelo Brozovic starting ahead of Andrej Kramaric.
Luka Modric (central midfielder) – Real Madrid’s Champions League winner has been Croatia’s star man in their run to the final and one of three Croatians with two goals
Ivan Rakitic (central midfielder) – Vital experience alongside El Clasico rival Modric in the middle, and scored the crucial penalty in both shoot-out wins.
Mario Mandzukic (striker) – The winner against England was his 32nd international goal, and followed a goal against Denmark and assist against Russia in the previous two games.
Croatia 2-0 Nigeria (own goal, Modric (p))
Croatia 3-0 Argentina (Rebic, Modric, Rakitic)
Croatia 2-1 Iceland (Badelj, Perisic)
-
Croatia 1-1 Denmark (Mandzukic; won 3-2 on penalties)
Croatia 2-2 Russia (Kramaric, Vida; won 4-3 on penalties)
Croatia 2-1 England (Perisic, Mandzukic; after extra time)
Croatia’s World Cup 2018 journey has been a tale of two halves. The first, the group stage, saw them in sublime form as they brushed Nigeria aside to win 2-0 after an own goal and Luka Modric penalty, before they stormed to an eye-catching 3-0 win against Argentina. In the latter, Willy Caballero’s error allowed Ante Rebic to volley Croatia in front and they never looked back as Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic added gloss to the scoreline.
A heavily-rotated team beat Iceland 2-1 to ensure they topped Group D with a 100 per cent record, but things have been tougher in the knock-outs, with Danijel Subasic their penalty shoot-out hero. Croatia conceded after just a minute in the second round against Denmark, but Mario Mandzukic levelled just moments later. Luka Modric missed a penalty in the last minute of extra time, but Subasic made three shoot-out saved as Croatia progressed.
Against hosts Russia in the quarter-finals, Andrej Kramaric cancelled out Denis Cheryshev’s opener and Domagoj Vida gave Croatia the lead in extra-time only for Russia to hit back and send the game to another shoot-out. Subabsic saved once and another Russian penalty was missed as Croatia once again advanced. Last time out, England took an early lead but Ivan Perisic’s equaliser took the game to extra time and, this time, Croatia did not need penalties as Mandzukic scored the winner to book their place in the final.
Croatia’s team last defeat was a friendly against Brazil at Anfield ahead of the World Cup. After bouncing back from that game with a 2-1 friendly win against Senegal, they won all three World Cup group games, before two penalty shoot-out success and their extra-time win against England.
Danijel Subasic
World Cup 2018 appearances: 5
World Cup 2018 conceded: 4
World Cup 2018 clean sheets: 2
Sime Vrsaljko
Appearances: 5
Goals: 0
Dejan Lovren
Appearances: 5 (+1 as sub)
Goals: 0
Domagoj Vida
Appearances: 5
Goals: 1
Ivan Strinic
Appearances: 5
Goals: 0
Marcelo Brozovic
Appearances: 3 (+2 as sub)
Goals: 0
Ante Rebic
Appearances: 5
Goals: 1
Luka Modric
Appearances: 6
Goals: 2
Ivan Rakitic
Appearances: 5 (+1 as sub)
Goals: 1
Ivan Perisic
Appearances: 6
Goals: 2
Mario Mandzukic
Appearances: 5
Goals: 2
Having beaten England in the semi-finals, Croatia are in the World Cup Final for the first time and will take on 1998 champion France in Moscow’s Luzhniki Stadium – scene of their semi-final success. This is Croatia’s first major final, whereas France were Euro 2016 finalists and have twice been World Cup finalists before. The match is scheduled to take place on Sunday July 15 and will kick off at 6pm local time.
Watch Live Streaming