Finland VS Italy Match Prediction

  • Logo2019-09-08
  • Logo18:45:00
Finland
VS
Italy

Our Prediction Tip

Italy will win this match.

Nicolo Barella and Moise Kean scored in a 2-0 Italy win in Udine in March, to take Italy’s record in this fixture to played 13, won 12 and drew one. Finland have not even scored against Italy since 1977 – a run of six games since, of which five have ended 2-0. They had previously last met in a friendly in June 2016, which was another game to end with that scoreline.

FIN vs ITA Betting Tips

The top two teams in Group J meet in Finland, with Italy rapidly closing in on a place at Euro 2020 and Finland looking well placed to join them.

Italy have won five from five so far, stretching their run in all competitions to just one defeat in 12. Roberto Mancini has fixed the team in the same manner he has at club level before – installing a solid defence and building from there.

Since Italy’s 2-0 win against Finland, however, the Finns have followed suit – four consecutive victories, all without conceding, to climb to second.

As well as a good defensive record, Finland have one of the most in-form strikers in football too – Teemu Pukki’s penalty last time out maintaining his good start to 2019-20.

The Norwich City man will need to be kept under wraps by Leonardo Bonucci, but the Juventus defender will be confident of doing that.

Finland have also been hit by the absence of Tim Sparv through suspension in midfield – he will be missed.

Furthermore, while their recent form has been good they still need to step up a fair way to improve their record in this fixture – they have lost 12 of the 13 matches they have played against Italy and failed to score in the last six.

Italy’s run of clean sheets has ended with goals conceded in their last two games, but they remain the top team in this group by a long way.

Victory against Finland would mean the group table reflects that too, keeping them well on course for sealing their place at Euro 2020.

Italy vs Finland Recommended bets with odds

Italy are odds-on favourites to beat Finland, but you can still back them at 8/13 to win with Betfair.

Both sides have been good defensively in this tournament and under 2.5 goals will return 27/40 with Bet365.

An Italy win to nil is 13/10 with Bet365, while you can bet against both teams to score at 4/6 with Betfair.

Andrea Belotti scored two of Italy’s three goals in Armenia, and the striker is 8/5 to score at any time with Bet365.

Finland vs Italy Prediction

Finland have won four from four since they last met Italy, without conceding a goal, but they have a poor record in this fixture and resurgent Italy can keep their own winning streak going.

Correct Score Prediction: Finland 0-1 Italy

Finland Team News

Captain Tim Sparv picked up his third yellow card of the qualifying tournament so far and so will miss this match through suspension. Rasmus Schuller could be the man to replace him in midfield.

Finland Key Players

Teemu Pukki – Continued his excellent goalscoring form for club and country when he converted a penalty in the win against Greece last time out.
Paulus Arajuuri – Set to pull on the captain’s armband in Sparv’s absence as he leads the defence against an in-form Italy team.
Lukas Hradecky – Finland have kept clean sheets in each of their last four games but the goalkeeper will be key as they face the last team to have scored against them.

Finland Team Form

Finland have bounced back from a 2-0 defeat in Italy when these teams last met by winning their next four in a row. They won away in Armenia and Liechtenstein, either side of victory at home to Bosnia – all finishing 2-0. Teemu Pukki scored both goals against Bosnia and has since netted twice more, once in the win in Liechtenstein and then again with the only goal against Greece last time out.

Finland Predicted Starting Line up

Expected Line up: 4-4-2

Italy Team News

Hit by injuries to Giorgio Chiellini, Mattia de Sciglio, Bryan Cristante and Lorenzo Insigne, Italy had Alessio Romagnoli partnering Leonardo Bonucci at the back last time out. In Insigne’s absence, meawnwhile, Federico Chiesa started but Lorenzo Pellegrini may have done enough with his goal to earn a place this time out.

Italy Key Players

Leonardo Bonucci – Captained the team as he won his 90th international cap last time out. The Juventus centre-back will lead the defence again.
Andrea Belotti – Given a chance leading the line and took it with two goals in the win against Armenia last time out.
Lorenzo Pellegrini – Stepped off the bench to score his first international goal last time out and the Roma man will be hoping for another chance in Finland.

Italy Team Form

Italy stretched their unbeaten run to nine matches as they came from behind to beat ten-man Armenia and record their sixth straight win. Andrea Belotti scored twice, either side of Lorenzo Pellegrini’s strike, in a 3-1 Italian win. It followed up their 3-0 win in Greece and 2-1 home victory against Bosnia in June, in which Lorenzo Insigne scored in both games.

Italy Predicted Starting Line up

Expected Line up: 4-3-3

Italy remain unbeaten at the top of the group, with five wins from five, after coming from behind to defeat Armenia. Finland's only defeat so far was against Italy, but Roberto Mancini's side are in resurgent form and can complete the double against the Finns.
Italy are unbeaten in all 13 previous matches they have played against Finland, of which they have won 12 - including the last eight in a row.