Excelsior VS Heracles Almelo Match Prediction

  • Logo2016-09-10
  • Logo18:45:00
Excelsior
VS
Heracles Almelo

Our Prediction Tip

Draw will win this match.

Very even – that’s the best way to describe the head-to-head record between these two sides. Heracles have bagged 14 wins to Excelsior’s 10, with eight draws. Of the last five played at Excelsior, the hosts have gone W2 D2 L1, so games between the two teams do tend to be well-matched affairs.

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Excelsior vs Heracles: Prediction

Instinctively we know that Heracles are a better side than Excelsior – there’s no other way to look at it, but yet the disparity is not so great that we can simply write this contest off as a Heracles win. Just take a look at the home/away form last season. Excelsior avoided defeat in more than half their matches at home (nine of seventeen), while Heracles only won 9/17 on their travels. That theme has continued somewhat this term, with Heracles yet to win on their travels and Excelsior with one win and one defeat at home.

So there’s no easy way to put this….but the draw looks the most viable option. The betting markets should provide some value here.

Excelsior vs Heracles Betting Tips

It’s hard to split these two sides given their current form and historical home/away records, so the draw at 12/5 is of interest. But we think we can do better than that: the Excelsior Double Chance is available at 8/11, with a +1 Handicap in their favour also available at the mark. Either one of those appears to be a smart investment.

Dutch football tends to promise goals, and when Excelsior have hosted Heracles seven of the last ten have witnessed over the 2.5 mark. This is available at 4/5 for eighth time lucky.

It’s been a bit of a mixed bag so far for Excelsior, but they will be happy nonetheless on the improvements they have shown already on their wretched 2015/16 campaign. Wins over Twente and Groningen, coupled with a spirited loss against Den Haag and a hammering at the hands of table toppers Feyenoord, means we don’t really know where we stand with the hosts here, although having shipped six goals in their last two outings we can confirm that their defensive woes of last season remain. 

Excelsior likely XI:

  • Goalkeeper:- Tom Muyters

  • Defenders:- Khalid Karami, Henrico Drost, Jurgen Mattheij, Bas Kuipers

  • Midfielders:- Luigi Bruins, Kevin Vermeulen, Ryan Koolwijk

  • Forwards:- Stanley Elbers, Fredy, Nigel Hasselbaink

It depends whether you are a glass half full or half empty kind of guy in summing up Heracles’ start to the 2016/17 campaign, and that’s because with the positives (a resounding win over Willem II, a spirited performance in defeat against Feyenoord) has come negatives (drawing at Roda JC). Even so, you would wager that they are still capable of emulating last season’s sixth place finish.

Heracles Almelo likely XI:

  • Goalkeeper:- Bram Castro

  • Defenders:- Tim Breukers, Mike te Wierik, Justin Hoogma, Robin Gosens

  • Midfielders:- Iliass bel Hassani, Joey Pellupessy, Thomas Bruns

  • Forwards:- Brahim Darri, Jaroslav Navratil, Vincent Vermeij

With just four games gone in the Eredivisie this season it is perhaps wise to abstain from forming long-term opinions of the two sides involved, but certainly you would argue that Excelsior have been no worse than Heracles so far; and thus their price with the bookmakers is surprising. They do perhaps lack the quality to win this match though, but some teams have a happy habit of avoiding defeat and it was that ability that kept them from relegation last term. Do Heracles have the quality to force the issue? Perhaps not, so expect a stalemate – perhaps with goals – here.
These things are relative of course, but 9/17 is the key stat here: that\'s how many home matches Excelsior managed to avoid defeat in last year, and how many Heracles won on their travels. Whichever way you shape it, this match looks likely to be a draw.