Croatia VS England Match Prediction
2018-07-11
18:00:00
Croatia
VS
England
Our Prediction Tip
England will win this match.
2018-07-1118:00:00 England will win this match.
Defeat to Croatia marked one of England’s recent low points – a 3-2 loss at Wembley in 2007 costing England their place at Euro 2008 and leading to Steve McClaren’s sacking and the infamous ‘Wally with a brolly’ headlines. England lost both qualifiers against Croatia in that campaign but they are the only two of seven defeats against them. They were drawn together in World Cup 2010 qualifying too, but England won 4-1 in Croatia and 5-1 at Wembley to exact some revenge. Mario Mandzukic scored Croatia’s goal in the first of those games, but none of the England players (in either match) still play for the national team more than eight years on.
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England have only lost one of their last 15 matches.
Both sides lost on their most recent appearance in the World Cup semi-finals – England in 1990 and Croatia on debut in 1998.
Croatia are unbeaten in their last six matches – four wins, and two penalty shoot-out victories.
Harry Kane, the leading goalscorer at the 2018 World Cup so far, scored in six consecutive matches before drawing a blank against Sweden.
Croatia announced themselves as potential World Cup dark horses when they thrashed Argentina 3-0 in the group stages, blowing them away with Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic excelling in midfield.
The midfield battle is likely to be key again on Wednesday, with Jordan Henderson tasked with nullifying the threat of Modric and Rakitic in the middle. If England can break up Croatia’s creative heart, they then have Kieran Trippier and Ashley Young to lead the counter-attack.
Croatia’s problem in the knock-out stages has been getting shots on target, and if they do they still have to beat in-form Jordan Pickford in the England goal.
England also only created two shots on target against Sweden – Raheem Sterling missing a couple of big opportunities – but they did score them both. Their set-piece threat is obvious, with Harry Maguire scoring his first goal of the tournament in the quarter-final, and it will have given them confidence seeing how poorly Croatia dealt with the Russia free-kick that led to the hosts’ late equaliser in their own last-eight match.
If England get set-piece opportunities, they will be confident of taking advantage of them – the vast majority of their World Cup goals have come from dead-ball situations. John Stones has scored twice, Maguire once and five of Harry Kane’s goals have come from set pieces too (two headers from corners, three penalties [two of which were won from set pieces into the box]).
Croatia are a big threat and England will not have it all their own way – a second consecutive clean sheet, given the goal threat Croatia carry – looks unlikely.
But Croatia have not looked as impressive in the knock-out stages as they did in the group stage, while England appear to be still improving game-on-game.
Croatia have some injury concerns too, while England should have a full-strength side to choose from. In a game of fine margins, that could make a big difference.
England are a best price of 11/8 to beat Croatia with Betway, whereas Zlatko Dalic’s side are 5/2. It is worth remembering Croatia have gone to penalties in their last two matches though; England to win and draw no bet is 4/7 with Paddy Power.
Both teams to score has been set at 23/20 with Betfair – generous considering England’s only clean sheet came in the quarter-finals and the two teams scored 15 goals between them in the group stages.
By the same token, over 2.5 goals will return a generous 8/5 with Betfair. England to win and BTTS is 24/5 with 888sport, while England to win and over 2.5 goals is 7/2 with Betfair.
Croatia defended poorly from set pieces in their two knock-out games, while England have been dominant from them in the opposition box. As a result, Harry Maguire and John Stones (16/1 with 10Bet) could be good picks for anytime goalscorers.
World Cup 2018 leading goalscorer Harry Kane is a best price of 7/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power to score at any time.
1) England to win at 11/8 with Betway
2) Both teams to score at 23/20 with Betfair.
3) Harry Kane to score at any time at 7/5 with Paddy Power.
Both Croatia and England have exceeded expectations getting this far, but Croatia have gone off the boil compared to their early blistering form. England’s set-piece threat will be key.
Domagoj Vida, who scored Croatia’s second goal in the quarter-final against Russia and netted in the shoot-out, is likely to avoid a ban after his politically-charged celebrations following the game, in which he was filmed shouting ‘Viva Ukraine’. He is expected to be fined, but the Croatian centre-back should be available to face England. Ivan Strinic was an injury doubt before facing England but the left-back played nearly 75 minutes to allay any fitness concerns. Goalkeeper Danijel Subasic played on despite suffering a hamstring injury, while Sime Vrsaljko limped off in extra time – both will face fitness tests before the semi-final.
Luka Modric (central midfielder) – Made a big impression during his time in England with Spurs and is now the centre of Croatia’s attacking threat; set up the second goal against Russia.
Ivan Rakitic (central midfielder) – Kept a cool head to score the winning penalty in each of the last two matches, highlighting his experience in the middle.
Mario Mandzukic (striker) – Scored his 31st Croatian goal against Denmark and set up the first against Russia
After Danijel Subasic’s penalty heroics against Denmark, Croatia once again went all the way against hosts Russia. Russia’s top scorer Denis Cheryshev curled in a brilliant opener but Andrej Kramaric levelled eight minutes later. The half-time score was unchanged come full-time with Croatia struggling to hit shots on target, but Domagoj Vida put them in front in extra time. Unmarked Manuel Fernandes’ late equaliser forced extra time, however. Fyodor Smolov missed the first kick and though Mateo Kovacic’s effort was also saved, Fernandes dragged his spot-kick wide and it was left to Ivan Rakitic to score the winner.
Croatia football team last lost when they faced Brazil at Anfield prior to the World Cup. Since then, they won four in a row before their two draws (and penalty shoot-out wins) in the World Cup knockout stages. In Russia, Croatia comfortably beat Nigeria 2-0 and Argentina 3-0 before a 2-1 victory at home to Iceland guaranteed top spot with a 100 per cent record. A 1-1 draw with Denmark – during which Luka Modric missed a last-minute penalty – ended their winning streak, but Danijel Subasic’s penalty heroics ensured they advanced on penalties. That was followed by the 2-2 draw with Russia (after extra time) and their second consecutive penalty shoot-out win.
Only Jamie Vardy failed to overcome the injury he picked up against Colombia and he would only have been a substitute against Sweden anyway. Ashley Young was fit to play, as were Dele Alli, Harry Kane and Kyle Walker, while Fabian Delph is back with the squad after his wife gave birth – the Manchester City man stepping off the bench against Sweden. England are likely to be unchanged for their semi-final.
Harry Kane (striker) – Though he failed to score for the first time in seven matches in the quarter-final, the England captain still leads the race for the Golden Boot with six.
Kieran Trippier (right wing-back) – The key player in the 3-1-4-2 system thanks to his tireless running and contributions at both end of the pitch.
Raheem Sterling (second striker) – Criticised for his finishing ability and ongoing international goal drought but he is making chances. If he takes his opportunities, it will make a huge difference.
Harry Maguire’s bullet header from an Ashley Young corner put England 1-0 in front on the half-hour against Sweden, before Dele Alli got in unmarked to head in a second from Jesse Lingard’s cross on 58 minutes. England were guilty of wasting chances – the goals were their only shots on target – but at the other end Sweden were struggling to create anything. Any chances they did create, in-form Jordan Pickford was equal to them in the England goal as he pulled off three big saves in the second-half.
England team have lost just one of their last 15 matches – the defeat to Belgium ending a run of four straight wins. They kicked off their Russia 2018 campaign with a late win against Tunisia as Harry Kane headed in his second of two goals in stoppage time to earn a 2-1 win. Kane then scored a hat-trick against Panama as England ran riot – John Stones (two) and Jesse Lingard – also scoring in a 6-1 win. The 1-0 defeat to Belgium, with a heavily rotated team, followed before the penalty shoot-out win against Colombia (after Harry Kane’s goal had seen England on the brink of the quarter-finals until a stoppage-time equaliser). Victory against Sweden earned their semi-final place.
Zlatko Dalic’s Croatia, in the World Cup semi-finals for the first time since 1998, and Gareth Southgate’s England – who last reached the last four in 1990 – face each other at Moscow’s Luzhniki Stadium, knowing the winners will be returning to play the World Cup 2018 Final against either France or Belgium. The match takes place on Wednesday July 11 and will kick-off at 9pm local time.
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