Borussia Dortmund VS Mainz Match Prediction

These two sides have met on 20 occasions in the past, with Dortmund enjoying the lion’s share of the spoils with eleven wins to Mainz’s three. Perhaps most tellingly, Dortmund have won nine of the last ten, including the double in 2015/16: which came via a pair of 2-0 victories.

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Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz: Prediction

Dortmund didn’t lose a game at their Signal-Iduna-Park home in 2015/16 (W14 D3), and that’s largely because of their ability to put the ball in the net, averaging 2.88 goals per game! That ratio is likely to improve yet further with the signing of Andre Schurrle, Mario Gotze and Mane Dembele, so they really could be a force to be reckoned with this term.

Not an ideal start for Mainz then, who lost more matches than they won on the road last season. They conceded at a rate of 1.40 per game as well, so the law of averages states that they will concede at least two here (if only football was that easy to predict!).

Dortmund have won 90% of their last ten fixtures with Mainz, and really that run is indicative of how this match is likely to pan out too.

Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz Betting Tips

The famous yellow-and-blacks are priced at around 2/5 to win this match, and if you have a significant bankroll those odds will be of interest. But we can do better than that for value seekers, and the Dortmund -1.25 Asian handicap at 4/5 certainly looks of interest. This would have yielded a return in six of the last seven meetings between these two sides.

We’re expecting goals too, and while a 60% hit rate for Over 2.5 Goals in the last ten meetings between these two sides isn’t that authoritative, the signings that Dortmund have made in the off-season suggests that they could average three goals per game themselves on home soil this term. Take the 8/13 available.

Dortmund coach Thomas Tuchel is renowned as something of a tactical genius in world football, and he will need to call upon all of his nous if he is to help his side overcome the ten-point cushion that Bayern Munich enjoyed at the top of the Bundesliga last season. He has been busy in the transfer market, and it will be interesting to see how his new charges fare here.

Borussia Dortmund likely XI:

Despite winning just one of their last six matches in 2015/16, Mainz managed to gatecrash the top six of the Bundesliga to cap a fine season for the underrated outfit. This is not a team of superstars by any means, but they perform in a manner that is greater than the sum of their parts, and they should prove to be a handful for Dortmund on Saturday.

Mainz likely XI:

The first game of any season can have the potential to create shock results, but after a productive pre-season campaign Tuchel\'s side will be chomping at the bit to get their Bundesliga assault underway. Mainz over-achieved in 2015/16 and will have been delighted by their sixth place finish; but expect a regression to the mean this time around, which means that the hosts should win comfortably on Saturday evening.

Of the last ten fixtures played between the sides, Dortmund have won nine; scoring some 23 goals along the way. Their dominance of Mainz cannot be overlooked.