Aston Villa VS West Bromwich Match Prediction
2019-02-16
15:00:00
Aston Villa
VS
West Bromwich
Our Prediction Tip
Draw will win this match.
2019-02-1615:00:00 Draw will win this match.
Aston Villa have won 77 previous games against West Brom, while the Baggies have won 54. The last two matches were both drawn, however – two of 37 draws in total. They drew in Villa’s final season in the Premier League – a stalemate at the Hawthorns – and drew at West Brom again this season. On the most recent occasion, Anwar El Ghazi twice gave Villa the lead, but Dwight Gayle cancelled out the first goal before Jay Rodriguez’s controversial stoppage-time equaliser – scored with his hand – ensured the match finished 2-2. West Brom won 1-0 on their most recent trip to Villa Park back in 2015, meanwhile.
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Villa’s 2-2 draw at the Hawthorns, in which West Brom scored a controversial late leveller, set the tone for their current run of seven draws in their last 13 games. It was nearly eight too, until they lost in the last minute against Brentford on Wednesday.
Villa have struggled defensively this season and come up against a West Brom attack in good form – Jay Rodriguez scored his 16th of the season in mid-week, while Jacob Murphy also netted as he looks to fill Harvey Barnes’ vacant position.
Dwight Gayle will miss this game after his dive to win Rodriguez’s penalty in that match, however, which is one less in-form striker for Tyrone Mings and Tommy Elphick to deal with.
While controversial on both occasions, the draws with Villa and Forest show how tough West Brom have become to beat. Just two defeats in 15 games prove that.
They too have defensive vulnerabilities, however, which Tammy Abraham will be keen to exploit. They conceded three against Middlesbrough and Brighton and two against Forest in their four games this month – a clean sheet at Stoke their one saving grace.
There could therefore be plenty of goals at Villa Park but is hard to split the two teams. The form book favours West Brom, but Villa have home advantage and, while wins have been hard to come by for Dean Smith’s side, they do not lose many either.
There is very little between these two teams with the bookmakers. Bet365 are offering 7/5 on a Villa and a best price of 9/5 on a West Brom, for example. The draw is very tempting, therefore: Betfair, Ladbrokes and 10Bet are all offering 5/2 on the draw.
Defensively, both teams have proved to be vulnerable in recent games. Over 3.5 goals could be worth backing at 8/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power.
You can also back both teams to score at a best price of 8/15 with Ladbrokes, Betfair and 10Bet, while a draw and BTTS will return 16/5 with Ladbrokes.
As for those goalscorers, Tammy Abraham is unsurprisingly favourite to net. He can be backed at 23/20 with 888sport. With Dwight Gayle absent, West Brom will be reliant on Jay Rodriguez for goals, meanwhile – he is 7/4 with 888sport.
These two teams drew at the Hawthorns earlier this season and with neither in good form defensively, this could be another high-scoring draw.
Kortney Hause, Glenn Whelan and Albert Adomah all started against Brentford, in place of Neil Taylor, Mile Jedinak and Jonathan Kodjia. They were more defensively assured as a result of the changes but further changes in personnel may be made as Villa look to end their latest winless run. Jack Grealish remains sidelined, however, while James Chester may not be risked and Axel Tuanzebe and Henri Lansbury are also still out. Tom Carroll faces a late fitness test.
Tammy Abraham – His goal in the comeback against Sheffield United was his 20th of the season – the fact he stayed put in January is a big boost for Villa.
Conor Hourihane – The Irishman has five goals and nine assists this season and it was telling that he was taken off before Brentford scored their winner on Wednesday night.
Anwar El Ghazi – In and out of the team but he scored both goals in the draw with West Brom when these two teams last met.
Aston Villa’s last-minute defeat to Brentford on Wednesday night was their first in five games but they have also only won once in that time. The sole win came against Ipswich Town, with Tammy Abraham scoring both goals in a 2-1 win. Villa started February with a goalless draw at Reading before the sensational comeback against Sheffield United – Tyrone Mings, Abraham and Andre Green scoring in the final ten minutes as Villa came back from 3-0 down to draw 3-3. They could not back that up at Brentford, however, conceding in the final minute to lose 1-0.
Dwight Gayle faces a two-match ban after being charged with diving as he won the penalty which earned West Brom a draw with Nottingham Forest on Tuesday night. Matt Phillips and James Morrison are both likely to be another week away from a return but Ahmed Hegazi could return at the back in place of Tosin Adarabioyo. Hal Robson-Kanu has missed the last few matches with a thigh strain but could be in line to replace Gayle if fit.
Jay Rodriguez – His penalty equaliser against Nottingham Forest was his 16th goal of the season and he has also made five assists.
Jacob Murphy – Signed to fill the void left by Harvey Barnes’ return to Leicester, he has a big role to play after Barnes’ impact earlier in the season.
Sam Johnstone – Spent last season on loan at Villa Park but will hope to keep in-form Tammy Abraham out on his return.
West Brom have also only won one of their last five matches, but one each of their two draws and two defeats in that time came in the FA Cup – the fourth-round tie with Brighton, which they eventually lost after extra time in a reply. In the league, the Baggies started February with a 3-2 defeat to Middlesbrough, despite Jay Rodriguez and Dwight Gayle having put them 2-1 up, but bounced back when Gayle scored the only goal in a win at Stoke. Last time out, Jacob Murphy scored the first equaliser in the 2-2 home draw with Nottingham Forest, but the second – Jay Rodriguez’s 89th-minute penalty – was hugely controversial, after Dwight Gayle dived to win the spot-kick.
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