Real Madrid VS Paris Saint Germain Match Prediction
2018-02-14
19:45:00
Real Madrid
VS
Paris Saint Germain
Our Prediction Tip
Draw will win this match.
2018-02-1419:45:00 Draw will win this match.
Real Madrid and PSG last met in the Champions League in the group stages in 2015/16 - the two games representing their first matches against each other since UEFA Cup and UEFA Cup Winner's Cup games in the early 1990s. The game in Paris, last time out, ended 0-0 before Nacho scored the winner in the return fixture at the Bernabeu.
%HEAD-TO-HEAD-STATS-BANNER%Real Madrid's home advantage makes them slight favourites for Wednesday's game but this is a game which could go either way.
While Madrid have been in dominant form at home in the Champions League, the defending champions' aura has faded this season after a string of poor results both in Europe and domestically.
Missing out on top spot has handed them one of the toughest draws they could have got for this last-16 tie, and it may be that both sides err on the side of caution with so much at stake.
PSG, at the very least, will hope to banish memories of their last Champions League knock-out match in Spain, when Barcelona’s incredible 6-1 win overturned a 5-1 first-leg deficit.
The French team have scored goals for fun in the group stages, however, and - though defeat at Bayern Munich in their final group game showed cracks still exist in their line-up - they will be hopeful of more goals on Wednesday.
Expect plenty of goals, and not much between the two teams - this game could definitely go either way.
With so little to choose between the two teams, the draw may be the best match result pick for Wednesday - that is 14/5 with Betfair, whereas a Real Madrid win is a best price of 6/4 with Bet365 and PSG are as high as 19/10 with William Hill.
Safer bets may be looking at goals instead - with Neymar, Edinson Cavani and Angel di Maria against Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema and Gareth Bale there should be plenty of attacking play to enjoy.
Both teams to score is priced at just 4/9 with Betfair, but you can get 5/4 from the same bookmakers if you back more than 3.5 goals to be scored in the game. PSG alone average more than four per game so far in this year's competition.
You can also get relatively generous odds on anytime goalscorer. Karim Benzema has been out of form this season and would be a risky bet, but the rest of the two attacking trios could be worth a punt.
Edinson Cavani and Neymar each have 28 goals this season, and both are 11/10 with Ladbrokes to score at any time.
After his hat-trick last weekend, Cristiano Ronaldo is 15/13 with the same bookmakers.
Expect goals at both ends, but with Real Madrid so difficult to beat at home do not expect either side to come away with much in terms of the tie as a whole. This one will go right down to the second leg, and a draw at the Bernabeu will set that match up nicely.
Dani Carvajal will be suspended for Wednesday's game, after UEFA upheld their decision to ban the Madrid player for getting deliberately booked earlier in the competition. His yellow card against APOEL ensured he missed the final group game, and was free to face PSG, but UEFA stepped in to inflict a further one-game suspension. Achraf Hakimi is likely to replace him at right-back. Dani Ceballos and Jesus Vallejo are both out injured, but Gareth Bale and Casemiro are expected to return to the starting XI after being rested at the weekend.
Cristiano Ronaldo appears to have finally found some form after a below-par start to the season - the Portuguese star scored his first hat-trick of the season in last weekend's 5-2 win against Real Sociedad. He has now scored 23 times this season, while no other Real player has reached double figures.
Real Madrid's inconsistent season has continued into the new year, with Saturday's win at home to Real Sociedad only their fifth in ten games in all competitions since the 3-0 loss to Barcelona just before Christmas. It followed a 2-2 draw with Levante and 4-1 thrashing of Valencia, which in turn had followed the shock 2-1 Copa del Rey defeat to Leganes.
Thiago Motta is fit again but, short of match fitness, is unlikely to be risked given the form of Giovani Lo Celso in central midfield. Unai Emery's biggest selection headaches appear to be at left back - where Layvin Kurzawa and Yuri Berchiche are competing for the left-back spot - and up front, where Angel di Maria could be preferred against his former team ahead of Kylian Mbappe.
Real Madrid's Marcelo insists Neymar will eventually join the Spanish team, despite his time at Barcelona, but for now the Brazilian - who scored his 28th goal of the season against Toulouse at the weekend - is PSG's star man. Edinson Cavani also has 28 for the season, but half as many assists as Neymar - eight for Cavani, 16 for Neymar. Their free-scoring attacking triumvirate will be completed by either Kylian Mbappe (15 goals, 14 assists) or Angel di Maria (13 goals, 15 assists).
PSG have won all six matches since Lyon became only the third team to beat them this season last month. Cup wins against Guingamp, Rennes and Sochaux have been inter-twined with three league wins, and three clean sheets, as PSG have beaten Montpellier 4-0, Lille 3-0 and Toulouse 1-0. Neymar has scored in each of those league wins.
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