Jamaica VS Mexico Match Prediction

The numbers indicate a totally different story than how the matches have played out between these two teams of late.  They've met 27 times now, with Jamaica getting just six results- three wins and three draws- but Jamaica have played them extremely tough of late, including in the 2015 Gold Cup Final and in this Cup's group stage.  But at the end of the day, it's been all Mexico since 1996 in this fixture.  Here's a look at the last five meetings:

Jul 13, 2017: Mexico 0-0 Jamaica (Gold Cup)
Jun 9, 2016: Mexico 2-0 Jamaica (Copa America)
Jul 26, 2015: Jamaica 1-3 Mexico (Gold Cup)
June 4, 2013: Jamaica 0-1 Mexico (World Cup Qualifying)
Feb 6, 2013: Mexico 0-0 Jamaica (World Cup Qualifying

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Jamaica vs Mexico Betting Tips and Odds

Bovada have the following odds available for this match:

Jamaica are at +550 to win, a draw is at +295, and a Mexico win is at -190.

The temptation is definitely there to have a punt on Jamaica, and it's something that we think should be considered by all involved.  While they are unlikely to overcome the last 21 years of heartbreak and frustration, there is an argument to be made that they could win.

On one hand, this is a Mexico side that are clearly not anywhere near their best.  This El Tri side is simply not very good, but they haven't been allowed to bring their full team- or anything near it- due to the Confederations Cup.  Jamaica also had a brilliant effort against them last time, and they will have confidence coming into this match.

However, the Reggae Boyz have not beaten Mexico in a very long time, and they are going to be up against it in Texas as Mexico supporters will be in the thousands compared to very little support for them.  

Because of that and the fact that it's Mexico and they have such a record, we still are leaning toward El Tri.

We like Mexico to win by just a goal here, so if they score first you can get -230 odds.  They're not great odds, but they do represent a sure thing if you believe Mexico are going to get a win.

Jamaica vs Mexico Prediction

Jamaica are going to put up a great, physical fight once again but the 'home' crowd behind the Mexicans will push them on toward victory.

Correct Score Prediction: Jamaica 0-1 Mexico

Team News

Winfried Schafer didn't make any changes to his side for the knockout rounds, and that decision was vindicated with a win.  Look for him to keep the side unchanged here as they seek to pull off an upset and move into the final for the second consecutive edition of the Gold Cup.

Key Man

Philadelphia Union fans will be smiling thinking just how great their goalkeeper Andre Blake is.  The 26 year old captain is one of the most athletic shot stoppers in the region and, we contend, the entire world.  Blake had four saves, including one incredible diving save.  He kept their lead intact, and he will take some major beating in this match as he can come up with some huge saves to keep his side in matches for longer than they deserve otherwise.

Team Form

Jamaica have two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches.  They lost 1-2 to Curacao in the Caribbean Cup before starting the Gold Cup with a 0-2 win against the same opponents.  Next came a 0-0 draw with Mexico and then a 1-1 draw with El Salvador that saw them finish second in the group.  That allowed them the chance to play against Canada, and they capitalized to win 2-1 and move to the semi-final.

Jamaica Predicted Starting Line-up

Expected Line-up: 4-4-2

Team News

Juan Carlos Osorio continues to serve a touchline ban from the Confederations Cup, and he also was unable (or unwilling) to make any changes to his side after the group stage because of that. Defender Jesus Molina was stretchered off the pitch against Honduras, so he looks to be out of this one.  

Key Man

It wasn't a classic performance against Honduras, but it did get the job done for El Tri.  They will need a goal from somewhere, and by the looks of it a good place to look is via Rodolfo Pizarro.  The attacking player got the goal they needed after just four minutes on Thursday night, and they were able to hold on from there.  Mexico have been struggling a little no doubt, but they can definitely use him to nick a goal and three points.

Team Form

Mexico have three wins and a draw, and a loss in their last five matches.  They lost 2-1 in extra time to Portugal in the Confederations Cup before beginning the Gold Cup with a 3-1 win over El Salvador.  Next was a 0-0 draw with Jamaica before they got a 0-2 win over Curacao to win the group.  On Thursday, they faced Honduras and they won by a score of 1-0.

Mexico Predicted Starting Line-up

Expected Line-up: 4-3-3

Jamaica have a big problem here in this match. They have not been able to overcome the vaunted Mexico side in over 20 years now. This is in spite of throwing some serious weight around at them in the group stage and two years ago in the final. It\'s a major hoodoo of sorts, and it\'s one that will take some doing to break. To do it, they will need to be great, hope to catch Mexico on an off night, and will still likely need some luck. Because we just don\'t see everything going perfectly for Jamaica, we think that El Tri will take a narrow victory and their customary spot in the final as a result.

Jamaica have not beaten El Tri since 1996.